Recent spat between France and Turkey after the former passed legislation criminalizing denial of Armenian Genocide has brought chaos in both countries. Surprisingly, business in both countries has risen to the occasion to bring a sense of balance and took steps to normalize the otherwise contentious situation.
On the road to chaos
Every now and then, countries spar themselves which is considered normal in diplomacy. Globally, it is a standard practice to agree to disagree. We know about the separation of power in democratic countries comprising of Legislature, Executive and Judiciary branches. A parliament of a country has sovereign right to pass legislation. But when such legislation is passed at the behest of the executive arm to spite another country then there is a crisis. Moreover, a parliament can pass a legislation commenting and naming an incident as bad in law; but when it oversteps and makes it a criminal offence to deny such incident it is arbitrary, to say the least.
Historians are still debating about massacres that took place in Eastern Turkey in 1915 when both Armenians and Turks were killed as invading forces from Russia were being resisted. Some historians consider the massacre as perpetrated by the Turks. On the other hand quite a number think contrarily and concede both Turks and Armenians were killed by Russians and their agents. Whatever the opinion is, it is best left to the historians to establish a truth commission and find out what exactly happened instead of blaming one against the other.
France passed a law in 2001 describing the incidents happened in 1915 as Armenian Genocide. In December 2012, its legislature passed a law that imposes a penalty of Euro 45,000 on a person who denies such genocide. There are 600,000 Armenians living in France whereas Turkish diaspora is about 40,000 only. The president of France, Sarkozy is facing election next year and he wants to get the Armenian support. Hence, he has instigated the passing of this piece of noxious legislation.
In its wake….
This brought huge spat between two countries. Turkey took several measures in retaliation. Recalling its ambassador, cancelling mutual meetings, cancelling military concessions granted to France on its soil. Beside these administrative measures, Turkey has unveiled economic measures. A voluntary boycotting of French goods is a business measure the Government urged on the public. In the finance field Turkey has a potent weapon. Turkish Central Bank has foreign reserves parked in Europe. The largest reserves of Euro 23 billion is held in French Government bonds. If Turkey shifts it to another country, invariably Germany Foreign Exchange stability of France can dip. In this chaotic situation politicians in both countries are doing nothing to avert a looming crisis. Ostensibly, saner counsel prevails in business circles in both countries. They express a voice of reason.
Business as saviour
Jean Lamierre and his Turkish counterpart Hasan Colegoglu, chamber presidents of France-Turkey Business Council, sprang into action. They ensured that everything is normal and business is as usual. The powerful Turkish Business Association TUSAID also intervened when its lady president Umit Boyner urged caution on the part of Turkey to be realistic and take the situation in its stride. They cannot be wrong. Look at the statistics. Turkey is France’s sixth largest import buyer; yet in terms of volume it is about 1.3 % of French exports. On the other hand, France is Turkey’s fifth largest import buyer; in terms of volume it is about 6% of Turkish exports. In value terms the mutual trade between France and turkey is estimated as 15 billion US $. Trade balance favours France with about 1 billion US$ as evidenced in Turkish exports to France at US$ 7 billion and its imports from France at US$ 8 billion.
Apart from trade, investment also works in a skewed manner. About 250 French companies operate in Turkey; you can easily spot the best French firms in Paris as well as in Istanbul. Notable amongst them are: Carrefour, Lafarge, Alcatel, Peugeot and Renault. Automaker Renault alone employs 6,000 people and operates the largest plant outside France. The total investment of French business in Turkey exceeds US$ 8 billion. Turkish investment into France is sizeable but does not exceed 1 Billion US$. About 35 big time Turkish companies have opened doors in France. Conglomerate Zorlu Holding and automaker Orhan Holding are key players. The latter employs about 460 people in France
Cosmics help keep balance
Turkey with a growth rate of 8% is second only to China today. Its booming economy, its export friendly policy, and its young and able workforce cannot go into drains due to political chaos. France is already tottering and next in line to go down in the Euro crisis. A sober assessment is the need of the hour. That has come from business, because only business understands how to keep a balance. Common sense along with cosmic balance can keep the economic ship sailing. Ignoring cosmics bring out in its wake economic imbalance, rhetoric and knee-jerk measures. Once again business in France and Turkey demonstrate that politicians bungle, gamble and ignore their mutual cosmics but only business can save the countries from impending chaos.
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